For our ESE 499 senior design project, we studied the progression of diabetes primarily based on BMI but also age. With a dataset of 64,496 individuals in hand, we formulated a hazard function model for the progression of an individual from well to diabetes to death. We used Maximum Likelihood Estimation to derive log-likelihood optimal model parameters. We then used these parameters to solve for transition probabilities based on BMI and diabetes status. We verify these results by changing exogenous variables and starting conditions. We also formulate a moving average model to calculate the risk multiplier based on BMI and age. Our analysis shows that individuals with higher BMIs are more likely to get diabetes and are more likely to die from the disease once developed.